Severe Weather Update

I don't have a lot to change from yesterday's thoughts as far as the overall gist of the current severe weather situation. This just isn't looking like a major outbreak of tornadoes to me, which is a good thing of course, but again, does NOT mean you let your guard down if you are in the risk areas. I have posted the current radar (as of this typing) below, and you can see a lot of storminess already out there. Moisture is sufficient as is shear, but the oreintation of the trough incoming is not prime for a huge tornado producer in my view (see yesterday's post), and you can already see the linear nature of the storms in Mississippi. We'll have to watch for any isolated storms ahead of this line, along with spin-ups in any bowed out sections or breaks in the line. Damaging straight-line winds will certainly be a threat with these storms. We also have a lot of activity in Florida, with some threat for tornadic cells, though I would think with the clustered nature, straight-line winds would be more of an issue as well. So all in all, the categorical risk on the SPC map below looks good now that they've cut back on the moderate risk some, though I still think the probabilities for tornadoes may be a bit high, with risk for damaging wind gusts perhaps not high enough in the moderate risk zone. It's been a neat storm to track, and hopefully no one will get a major hit here out of this.

Should be more threats to monitor in the South over the next week or two.

Radar, followed by SPC risk map: