We Have Danny!

The system discussed yesterday has just been updragded to Tropical Storm Danny, as it has finally developed an established low level circulation, and the shear pattern has improved quite a bit versus 24 hours ago. The center of circulation is not embedded underneath the deepest convection, which until that occurs will limit how fast this can ramp up, but it's a big improvement. As for the future of Danny, I don't have a lot different to add to what I stated yesterday. My guess is that the strongest this can get is a category 1 hurricane, and my best guess at track is still toward eastern North Carolina (I think the upper ridge holds this farther west than the GFS model and it's cousins, the NHC hurricane models and GFDL), affecting Hatteras the most, then moves northward along the East Coast, perhaps making another "landfall" (assuming it is still a tropical entity, which I think it should be, enough to keep classified as Danny... we'll see) in southern New England as the next upper trough is focused back in the Midwest this weekend.

While not a "major" system, it could make things interesting right along the coast, though into the big cities of the East, I still think heavy rain is really the only notable threat here. I guess the track I have laid out would put New York and Boston at a higher risk for more periods of tropical storm force wind gusts, but still there I tend to think rain is a bigger issue than wind (keep in mind I mean the metro areas, not right along the shores of Long Island or over to Cape Cod).

This also puts us actually a little ahead of schedule for the 4th named storm, which typically occurs around September 1st... interesting given the slow start to the season!