With Danny Gone, Eyes Turn to Next System

So Danny was essentially a non-event, which wasn't a surprise, but I had figured it would keep its "named" status longer than it did, even though it wasn't a purely tropical system. In any case, he's gone, so we're left with tracking the system east of the Lesser Antilles, which looks close to if not already at tropical depression / storm status at this time, so a classification could take place by NHC later today or tonight. The environment through tomorrow or maybe Wednesday could be good enough for some steady development, though it is close, as it will be on the eastern edge of a pretty hefty shear zone. After mid-week, the environment doesn't seem to be very favorable to me, as the upper low currently causing the shear probably doesn't move away faster than the storm is moving, and add to this the fact that by the weekend, there may be a piece somewhere in the southern U.S. or Southeast left behind in the wake of the current cool trough to also add some shear to the mix. It seems that some are of the opinion that if this system survives and gets toward the Bahamas this weekend, then it is off to the races intensity wise, and I'm not sure that is the case. Mind you, that does NOT mean it can't be a hurricane at all, but comparisons to storms like Andrew, or even 2004's Frances seem premature by a long shot, as the pattern to me does not look nearly as favorable, as both of those storms had better upper air ridges to the north, noted by the 588 height line at 500 mb extending way farther into the U.S. Point here is that on the edge of ridges, you have to watch these little "garbage" upper air features that can dance around, and that needs to be considered when trying to figure out future intensity as well as of course track. I have posted the European model shear map at day 6 as an example of this. Despite a decent upper ridge in western Atlantic, there is a little weakeness on the western side, and as you can see on the bottom left image, assuming we do have "Erika" in the Bahamas this weekend, the environment is not ideal. Now, you say, well the model could be dead wrong. Sure, it very well could, but most models generally agree on the position of the ridge, which means we have to watch for these subtle weaknesses given the strong trough departing the East.

So all of that said, first off I'm not sure if this thing will survive the trek into the Bahamas (I'm assuming that is the general direction it should go, as the ridge should keep it from escaping out to sea before getting that far), but if it does, the enviroment to me does not scream major hurricane, but at the same time, there is the risk of downplaying it too much, as a minimal hurricane still is a formidable foe if you have to deal with it, and this system will have a hard time "escaping" out to sea, so the odds favor either 1) getting torn apart by shear in the coming days, or 2) a move toward the U.S, probably Florida focused, so it does bear watching of course. My discussion here is more geared toward some of the rumblings I have heard about this possible being the next "big one". I think it has quite a fight on its hand to get to that status. In any case, it will be interesting to track, as the fact that it has been slow to get going has allowed it to be more of a potential player than I figured it may be from last week.