Basketball > Weather... Maybe More Interest Thursday?

Well, internet issues again didn't allow me to post Friday as I had planned, but it looks like in an overall sense, the Friday - Saturday severe weather event did not live up to what some models had been portraying, which of course is good news for those that were in the path of the storm. As such, the weekend wound up a good one to watch some hoops. My forecast for a UNC title still is alive at least, though I only got half of the Final Four correct this year.

Anyhow, with basketball on a break until the weekend, it is back to searching for threats in the current weather pattern. The next notable threat I see is on Thursday, and interestingly enough is in many of the same areas that were under the gun back on Friday. The pattern seems to want to repeat itself to some degree, with a series of lows coming out of the Rockies and into the Plains, then heading to the Mid-Atlantic, and that is what looks to occur Thursday and Friday of this week. I have two maps below. The first is the 500 mb forecast off the NAM valid Thursday afternoon. Yeah the NAM is not known for being stellar beyond like day 1, but other models generally agree on this setup. The second map shows the 2 meter dewpoints progged for the same time period, along with the lifted index. Obviously there should be no major concerns as far as lack of moisture is concerned. But once concern that may limit the potential here is similar to what happened back on Friday. Note the white circle I have placed on the 500 mb map. Right now, models show this lead impulse taking some of the "energy" away from the second system back in the southern Plains. I put "energy" in quotes because it's an over simplification, but the net result is that this lead system again weakens the 850 mb gradient, and we wind up having to wait until later in the evening to get the low level jet to crank again, and with it being tucked close to the parent trough coming out of the southern Plains, it would seem to imply that the tornado threat would be limited mostly to a 2-3 hour window, and storms may wind up clustering rather quickly after that. SPC has highlighted an area basically from New Orleans to Jackson, MS eastward into the Southeast in their day 4 assessment, though my guess is that will wind up needing to cover all of LA and MS. Greatest threat to me looks to be in LA, MS, and AL, and I could see this being a moderate risk day at the present time, but of course this far out will need to be refined as the event draws nearer. SPC also highlighted a risk this weekend in parts of OK and TX into the lower Mississippi valley, but this hinges on how much moisture can get back into the region in the wake of the Thursday storm, so will have to assess this one later on.

Maps referred to above: