More Severe Weather On the Way

Yesterday went about as I expected... not a huge outbreak, but unfortuantely I did read that there were a few injuries. Here are yesterday's reports:














Looking ahead, there is no rest for the weary, as severe weather season seems ready to take off as we move through the next couple of weeks. Each of the next few days we have chances for severe weather, all the way to Saturday. I don't want to downplay the next couple of days (which could include strong to severe storms in my own backyard tomorrow into tomorrow night), but clearly the most glaring feature on the maps the next few days is Friday into Saturday. The current system moving into the Midwest is not able to push far enough south to really "clean out" the warm, moist air mass in place, which will allow the late week storm to have a lot of "juice" to work with. Here is the GFS valid Friday afternoon, which is one of the more ominous model depictions:















That's a pretty potent upper level system coming out of the central / southern Rockies, which by the way will be an impressive snowstorm from Denver out into parts of Kansas and perhaps up into Nebraska then the Upper Midwest for this time of year. The GFS also has a sufficient low level jet in place across the lower Mississippi Valley. Take note also of the vort max shown over the TN / KY region. That is a key also, as subsidence in the wake of this feature may allow sunshine to maximize destabilization from eastern Texas into AR / LA / MS ahead of the main upper low, though again, this model solution is probably the most ominous, but all models show what could be a dangerous storm in these areas (again maybe down toward me, though capping usually squashes the threat here for the most part... we'll see), though some other models do not depict much of a low level jet in place. While the GFS may be overdone, it's hard to see how such a system at 500 mb wouldn't generate enough of a LLJ for some severe weather (you don't need a 40+ knot LLJ anyway), especially with the warmth and moisture in place. Anyway, can't really get too specific yet other than this, but everyone from eastern Texas across the South will need to keep an eye on this, and the threat may extend into the Southeast Saturday.

Longer term, numerous models show a trough more or less anchored in the means near the Rockies, so we probably are not done with severe threats after this week, provided enough warm, moist air stays in place. We also may see a trough hanging around off the Northeast as well, but if you recall the image I posted a long time ago (I'll have to dig it up again) that showed the "optimal" tornado pattern, you often see this. The reason is that such a setup leads to higher pressure in the East, with a south to southeasterly return flow in the middle of the nation, and this keeps low level flow backed enough to maximize directional wind shear. Bottom line... We probably will have a lot to watch in the next week or two at least.