Severe Weather Threat Today... In My Backyard!

Occasionally I get to write about weather in my own area, and today is one of those days. It's a tricky situation (always is down here regarding severe weather chances), but there is a risk of severe storms in parts of Texas and over into Louisiana later today and tonight, and yes, a couple of tornadoes are possible. This morning's cold front pushed farther south than expected though, but is heading back north as I type, which means warmth and moisture is back on the increase in southeast TX. We already have a severe thunderstorm watch in central Texas, mostly for hail. What to watch for later is 1) How much does the low level flow increase? And 2) Does the cap erode in SE TX, allowing storms to root in the boundary layer? Models show the low level jet increasing to over 30 knots later this evening just to my east, which is sufficent to get severe storms. Along and to the west of the LLJ axis is where the best tornado threat should be, provided the cap weakens enough. I see SPC almost pulled the "moderate risk" trigger here, and I can see that, but I feel that, given concers about the cap, a high end slight risk is the way to go. Sunshine has poked out here though, so we'll see what happens late afternoon into early tonight, which is when "prime time" would be.

A more significant outbreak of severe weather is still possible Friday and Friday night in far eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS. I still find it hard to imagine such a strong upper level storm like the one that is coming out of the Rockies (which will be a hefty late season snow producer from eastern Colorado into KS, OK, and parts of MO) can clash with such a warm, moist air mass without some fireworks. My guess right now is that SPC will go moderate risk in tonight's day 2 outlook for this event. As mentioned yesterday, this threat carries into the Southeast Saturday, still with some tornado potential.

And now we have a few models that show another storm around the middle of next week which could be a severe weather producer in the same areas, along with another snow threat from eastern Colorado into Kansas and perhaps parts of Oklahoma. Lots to keep track of here the next few days, so stay tuned!

BTW, here is today's tornado risk map courtesy of SPC, which I have no major disagreements with.