Update on Severe Threat Today... More on the Way?

Couldn't update this weekend due to internet issues, but the threat today is still contigent upon the dynamics making up for a relative lack of moisture (50s dewpoints can be enough, but you'd like to see 60s for a bigger outbreak of severe weather). One thing that looks more favorable than when I posted back on Friday is that we should have more directional shear in the KS / OK area than what I was expecting when I posted on Friday. I have posted a map of the 0-3 km shear vectors, and what I want you to do is imagine a north to south oriented front from central SD down toward central OK. Notice the shear vectors in KS / OK are oriented more perpendicular to the front, which gives storms more of a chance to remain supercellular rather than lining out, as may be the case farther north where the shear vectors are more parallel to the front. This is something to keep in mind when making an analysis of severe weather. Having said all of this, I really don't have a big disagreement with SPC's outlook for today. While there are limiting factors, a moderate risk is okay, though I'd be okay with a high end slight risk as well, given the borderline nature of the event. I may need a post to deal with a potentially more significant event later this week (Friday into Saturday), as models starting to look a little more ominous in that time frame from the mid-lower Mississippi Valley into the South.

Maps below are the 0-3 km shear vectors valid this evening, and the SPC outlook for today.