Severe Weather Threat Early Next Week?

Things have been fairly quiet on the severe weather front lately, especially when considering how active the last few years have been so early on in the season. It remains to be seen if we ramp up activity later on, but we do at least have a threat on the horizon for early next week. I have presented a few maps below which you may refer too. All models agree on a fairly potent upper low coming out of the Rockies Monday, as shown on the first map below, which is the GFS 500 mb height / vorticity plot valid Monday afternoon. Notice a strong trough also though over the Northeast, which I think will limit the amount of time a solid return flow of Gulf moisture will be into the Plains to at least some degree. A month later in the season and this may not be nearly as much of an issue, but it is still late March.

The second map is also a 500 mb plot, but has the winds at that level rather than vorticity. Notice peak winds in the jet core coming into the Plains are over 90 knots, which is solid and easily can support a severe threat.

The third map below is the low level jet at 850 mb, which exceeds 50 knots in its core, again, well over what you need to see to generate strong to severe storms. Given the low level jet's intersection with the 500 mb jet over central Kansas, this would be a favored area for severe weather, provided enough moisture and instability is in place, which may be the limiting factor. The final map shows that dewpoints are expected to be mostly in the 50s, as opposed to 60s, which would be a more favorable environment for storms. Also, this return flow looks rather dirty to me, meaning clouds and light precipitation may cover much of the warm sector, limiting how unstable the atmosphere gets, and indeed models show the highest instability will be limited to a narrow strip ahead of the front.

So my guess is that we will have a few severe storms from central Nebraska into Kansas, Oklahoma, and north Texas, with a few supercells possible despite limited moisture content. The area at greatest risk to me would appear to be central Kansas if I har to pick a spot, with perhaps a secondary area in southern Oklahoma / north Texas as core of 500 mb jet punches eastward in the evening Monday. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out in my opinion as initial storms form Monday afternoon or early evening, but the flow has a strong southerly component at all levels, and the instability axis is pretty narrow, so my guess is storms will "line out", or aggregate together in a linear fashion quickly, making hail and gusty strightline winds a bigger threat as the event unfolds Monday afternoon / evening. There may be a threat for isolated severe storms Tuesday farther east toward the Mississippi Valley, but should be less of a threat than on Monday.