Quick! Man the Snowplows!

Well, I mentioned how tricky this setup was for the upcoming storm, and while still, even this close to the event, there are some notable differences in modeling, I think things have definitely trended MUCH more favorable for a nice storm for many in the East, including places that have seen very little this winter. Let's go back to what we were looking at yesterday. I discussed how the key was an upstream "kicker" shortwave that was expected to move things along and push the bulk of this storm farther east. That had been the trend all winter long, and honestly, there was nothing suggesting that the northern stream would not continue to assert its dominanace, so that was the idea to go with. However, for the first time this season, things are trending slower / weaker with the northern stream flow, in that the kicker shortwave is weaker on today's models, along with a more solid ridge out west, and this allows the storm to come up the coast farther west. Let's look at a couple of maps. The first map down below is the GFS from yesterday, and I want you to take note of the shortwave in central Canada, highlighted in red. The second map is today's GFS, and look at how much weaker / farther north that shortwave is, which means less of a kicker, and BAM. That is a big key to all of this, and why models have come west, so please take a look at this. Now, you may ask. What about the NAM? This is the short range model that typically is the go to model at this range, and it is way east, showing virtually nothing for the big cities other than Boston. It is closer to what my thoughts were yesterday, so why do I discount it in this case? The reason is again because of the shortwave up in Canada. This shortwave this morning is up in northwest Canada, which is a location that I would tend to think the global models can resolve better than the NAM, and pretty much all models are lined up against the NAM at this point, which is tough to ignore. The final map below is my updated call, which as you can tell from this discussion, is a lot different than yesterday's guess. I'd also add that yes I can see a 12+ area in eastern New England, but wasn't confident enough to put it on here yet, so will call it 6-12 with local amounts of 12-16 and be done. I am going for a sharper precip gradient than the global models and perhaps still a little east of some of them. What can go wrong? Well, even at this short range, still a lot! The NAM could still score the coup, but we'll see if it shifts west any later today. Once the Canada features are more in the core of the NAM's grid, I would assume it does indeed pull west some. I won't be able to update the map the rest of today, since I will be out this evening, but will try to throw out last minute thoughts when I am able to. It does seem that if changes need to be made, it is more likely to be in the direction of increasing the amounts.

Weekend Snow Guess

Will outline an update tomorrow with this...

I have to admit this is a very low confidence forecast, but it is time to take a stab. First, the model ideas. The European came pretty far west with the upper low, close to the Canadian, while other models are farther east. This is because the Euro / Canadian are slower with the "kicker" that helps push things along. Now, do we want to bet on a SLOWER northern stream in this winter season's pattern? I don't, and think the Euro has probably come too far west, as GFS seems to be initialized slightly better, but we'll see. It is a tricky call since we have a front running wave ahead of the upper low. Because of this, I have two maps. One for the front runner and another for the upper low itself as it moves across. I also need to point out these maps are for snowfall ideas. While I have wave one missing the big cities with respect to acumulating snow, I do think sleet is very possible, especially from Philly to New York, and perhaps Boston as well, though some snow should fall there. I'm not as emphatic with this front wave as the NAM model, but don't mind its overall track.

The second wave with the upper low itself, unfortunately may wind up too far east to help the big cities, as I don't think it phases, but rather gets pushed out to see faster than what the Euro / Canadian alliance show. D.C. is the toughest call here if I am right with this overall idea, and I have them near the 1-3" boundary. This looks like a great storm for western North Carolina, and we may actually get a decent snow in the Roanoke to Richmond corridor (if this fails I will give up predicting snow ever there hahaha). The reason this is all so difficult to pin down is because you have to assess how quick the cold air arrives, then how far east the front wave pushes the boundary, followed by the position of the upper low and how it interacts with the boundary left from the front wave. Here are the maps. First one is for the front running wave tomorrow evening into Sunday. The second is with the upper low Sunday into Monday. If you'd like any clarification, by all means ask. If this busts, I think it will be due to a less impressive first wave, and a beefed up wave associated with the upper low. The interior Southeast could do better than what I have here, especially near mountains.

What a Mess!

Well, we are within 3 days of the weekend event, and there is still so much to resolve. Part of the reason models (and forecasters) are struggling with this event is because there are so many shortwaves playing a role in the evolution of this storm, and according to most models, these features are unable to consolidate into one potent system, so we wind up with a couple of different waves developing along the frontal boundary that moves through on Friday. Getting back for a moment to the original 3 scenarios I outlined the other day, the closest to what looks to be happening is number 3. The northern stream features actually do look to be progressing a little more than the Euro model from the other day showed (no shock there since this happens with seemingly every system this season). And also the southern piece more or less stays south and gets pushed out to sea too much to help most folks. However, the new wrinkle in this is that even the southern stream piece itself is divided, and some models show the leading piece in the southern stream hooking up with the frontal boundary in time to bring a wave of snow (and sleet) from the Apps up into the Northeast, while the second piece hangs back and could become a notable late season wet snow event for the Southeast. I think at this point it is hard to argue completely against the divided southern stream pieces, but I do wonder if models are jumping on wave number one a little too much and thus not developing the core of the southern upper low enough. The UKMET model seems to be putting more eggs in the basket of the second piece, and to me isn't unreasonable as far as modeling goes. We'll know more though tomorrow once all of the players involved are squarely in a location where they will be able to be better sampled by upper air data and thus better handled by models.

If time permits, I'll throw out a forecast map for this event tomorrow. Right nowI think folks near the Apps and up into interior Northeast are fair game for a decent late season wet snow event, all the way down into the Carolinas as well as eastern Tennessee and northern Georgia. And the upper low is strong enough that even some lower elevations farther east in the Carolinas may see some accumulating wet snow out of the deal.

What about the big cities of the East? I can envision precipitation staying mostly frozen from Boston down to New York City, and maybe even Philly. This could be quite a sleet-fest in these areas given the strength of the low level cold currently up in Canada, which always proves tougher to get rid of than models think, so while it may not be a big snow event, it could be reminiscent of the sleet events from a couple of winters ago, thus still a notable late season storm.

I'd like to be able to offer more specifics, but having been out of town the last few days, that makes it tougher to dive right in and try to figure out things with such a complex setup like this one. Again, hopefully I'll have a map tomorrow to show visually what I think is most likely.

Weekend Update

Just a quick note here. Looks like the weekend system talked about in the previous post has developed into more or less a "two wave" feature. The southern piece (again discussed in previous post) did trend a little farther north, and doesn't look to have enough cold air around to help many folks outside of the Appalachains and interior Northeast. To be sure there can be a few inches of wet snow here. With it a little farther north, that allows the northern stream feature to dive in behind this system, and though it doesn't looks like it will "phase", it does have a chance to initiate a second low offshore, and depending on track, this could enhance more snowfall in parts of the Northeast. I'm headed back home today, and tomorrow can focus on how much snow will fall and pin down location better. This is just a brief overview on where things seem to stand right now, which is all I have time for currently.

Another "Fantasy" Storm for the East? Or the Real Deal?

Checking in on the weather from my perch in Denver, Colorado, I see we have another potential storm threat to disect for 5-6 days from now, for this weekend, in the eastern U.S. Once again, among the major computer models, it is the European blowing the horn loudest (what in the world happened to this model?). I'll post a couple of maps here, but I almost feel like my analysis resembles a broken record, as the same concerns exist for this possible storm that have existed for every threat this season. Anyway, here is the Euro's upper air map for Saturday morning:













I have drawn in a few features here. The red line in the middle of the U.S. is the feature that is our possible storm. I also drew in two other shortwaves in the northern stream up north, and the blue arrow is the northern stream itself. Notice the southern piece has "detached" from the northern stream flow. That allows it, according to the model, to slow down and "cut off" in the East, turning into a potential big late season storm. Here is the forecast map for Sunday morning off the Euro model:

The same features are outlined, and you can see the northern stream is still well north of the southern piece that it cutting off in the East. This is not something that has been able to occur all season, and frankly should not be trusted here. I see three scenarios here, and 2 of the 3 basically turn this into a non-event as far as any chance to turn into a large snowstorm.

1) The Euro model is right and we get the storm, as it is able to detach from the northern stream and cut off in a perfect position with just enough cold air... again leaning against this right now though

2) Look back at the 1st map, and note the shortwave (in red) almost directly north (actually north-northwest) of the system that is supposed to become the storm. What if the flow is again going to verify faster, and this piece is a little farther east, and can drop down and merge with the southern stream feature (most recent GFS actually showed this)? Then you get a system that cuts inland and brings rain to the East, though could be a nice snowstorm for the Great Lakes region.

3) The flow is faster, but we don't get the merging of systems (or phasing), so the southern piece is free to slow down. But the dominant northern stream crushes any ridging in the Rockies more than the Euro shows, thus any cutoff in the eastern U.S. is weaker and farther north (disconnected from major cold air source as well), or just gets pushed out to sea. This solution might be able to bring some wet snow in some localized area, but wouldn't be a huge, widespread system.

Not to play Debbie Downer for snow lovers, but it is hard given the pattern to go against option 2 or 3 here. It will take almost perfect timing to get the actual solution shown in the maps above, or something close to it, to verify in my opinion. But again, any sane forecaster must throw in the fact that this is still a few days away, and in meteorology, anything can happen.

Rocky Mountain High

I will be leaving for Colorado tomorrow morning, preparing to attend a workshop Tuesday hosted by Ed Berry and Klaus Weickmann. We'll be getting into global drivers of weather patterns, specifically with the "global wind oscillation" (some of you may have heard of this), in an attempt to improve forecasting going out 2-4 weeks. It should be a very interesting experience, and of course, getting a little trip out of the deal in a scenic area is pretty cool too.

I'll be doing a review of meteorological winter soon, which ends with the conclusion of February ("meteorological" winter covers the months of December to February only, as they are, on average, the coldest three months of the year. There will be a lot of interesting and unique things to discuss, some of which may be covered in the workshop as well. There were several "la nina" influences on the season, but we managed to get quite cold in many areas in January, which wasn't expected by the vast majority of forecasters, and this has certainly skewed the winter to the colder side in much of the eastern U.S, though the Southeast, in typical nina-like fashion, has been warmer than normal. I have posted below a map showing the temperature anomalies for this winter so far, which won't change much with only 6 days left until the end. Now we move on to Spring and severe weather season, though of course will still watch for any late season snow events as well. Image below courtesy of MDA.

Final Clipper Guess

I'm working from a computer with no good map making software, so will have to put it in words. Looks like the transer of energy to the coast will come far enough south to allow snow farther down into parts of southern New England than where I had it the other day. Boston is a very tricky call but I think will get up to a couple of inches out of the deal in the city as heavy precipitation moves in even though temperatures look marginal. Lots of bust potential here though in both directions.

So here's my last guess:

2-4" for all of Massachusetts west of line from Franklin to Boston, perhaps down into parts of northern Connecticut.
4-8" from Worcester to Portland, Maine westward to the New York border (includes all of New Hampshire / Vermont
8+" for central / northern Maine, much of New Hampshire from Concord northward, and Vermont north and east of I-89

Clipper Update... March Severe Weather?

Overall I'm still okay with the clipper ideas posted yesterday. I think the general areas I outlined with a shot at 2-4 inches of snow from the clipper itself isn't bad, though the area of highest uncertainty is in the state of Massachusetts. If the energy transfers to the coast farther south, then my areas would need to come south some at least in the East, as the low levels of the atmosphere would not be able to warm as much. It's a very close call to be sure for places like Boston. Also keep in mind my map wasn't meant to include any lake effect or upslope mountain snow behind the clipper.


I'd also like to look ahead a little to March here. There is not great model agreement in extended time frames, but the pattern presented by the GFS (American model) in early March would be quite conducive for some early season severe weather in parts of the U.S. Hard to say it is right yet, but it cannot be ruled out given the angular momentum drop recently and the overall nina-like tendencies this season. Anyway, just more of a "heads up" for now. Here are the upper air anomalies forecast by the GFS ensembles for the 11-15 day period (taking us to early March), courtesy of MDA Federal's site:

You can see all the negative anomalies out in the West, indicating a much stronger trough, or upper level storm out there. In the Spring, these can become prolific severe weather producers when they eject into the middle of the nation. To compare, I also have a similar map that covers some of the most active tornado seasons of the past. This next map covers April - June periods, which is the heart of the tornado season, but you can see it is very similar to the first map, indicating a favorable period may arise earlier this year, again if the GFS model is correct, which remains to be seen. We'll watch this potential over the next week or so, along with searching for any more notable threats for late season winter weather.

Weekend Clipper Snow Idea

I figure at this point, despite how awful the computer models have been lately, I can offer an idea for the snowfall from the weekend clipper. It comes Saturday and Sunday, so of course there can still be large errors 3-4 days out, but why not take a stab. The big coastal storm idea of course is still gone, but this may develop strong enough to give parts of northern New England a good snowfall. This idea is shifted a little north of where I had the original lines drawn (not really "drawn", as I didn't have a map of course, but where I stated they would be). I'm highlight only the areas I feel have the best shot at 2 or more inches here from the clipper itself, not from lake enhancement or upslope snows in the mountains in the cold air behind the storm (to be sure that will accumulate too, but I consider that a separate, post clipper event). So keep that in mind when looking at the following map. You will notice I have a break in the 2+" snow potential in New York state, where I think there may be a "dwindling" as energy gets transferred to the coast and away from the primary low / batch of precipitation.

I will adjust if anything notable changes in the next day or so, and maybe tomorrow we can get into what lies ahead next week (European model making some "rumblings" again, but that has been an awful model lately). As always, click to enlarge and view my astounding map-making skills! Ha!

Progressive Pattern = No Big Weekend Storm

I'm not sure what is trending lower... the stock market, or the chances of a big coastal storm this weekend with snow for the East. Both are looking pretty ugly now. As expected, the big storm shown on yesterday's Canadian and European models has vanished today. The progressive nature of the northern stream still keeps fighting off the chance for a deep snowstorm to develop. Having said that, we still do have the clipper coming in this weekend, which again, isn't a huge system, but does have a chance to put down a few inches somewhere as it moves eastward. My idea on this from the other day was that the best chance for more than an inch of snow ran from along and north of a line friom Muncie, IN to New York City. The adjustment I'm contemplating now is to move this line in the East more toward Boston, but let's see how things look tonight before changing that for sure, as four days out, that is essentially splitting hairs given how much things can change in that length of time. The northern edge looks to run roughly from Milwaukee, WI to northern Maine.

It does get colder in the wake of this clipper, but it seems milder air may arrive right at the end of the month and into early March. So while this cannot be said to be winter's last gasp just yet (it can still snow well into March and even April up north), we are heading for the finish line here in the next few weeks for most areas of course. I'll then await thunderstorm season, and use this space to focus on severe weather threats, and maybe a little educational stuff regarding global patterns / teleconnections and how they play a role in what happens here in the U.S. I'll do my best to fnd something of interest in the weather world at least!

A New Wrinkle in Weekend Threat

If you asked me what I thought about the weekend clipper system today, again with a gun to my head, I'd still go with the ideas outlined yesterday, but a couple of models are really throwing us a curve here. There is no doubt that in this winter, nailing down details with storms has been very tough to do for pretty much every meteorologist and hobbyist that I know. Part of this I think is due to heading into a new long term regime in the Pacific, and the unique behavior of the sun and the stratosphere. I think all of these factors are really going to test folks in the coming years, and many people may need to refine their methods. We'll see. Anyhow, back to the present. If you simply adjusted for a faster northern stream and generally less amplification with storms (we did get some amplification and very cold weather in January), you'd be on target more often than not with these situations this winter. But now we have something unexpected. A couple of models, the Canadian and more importantly the European (typically more reliable) have indeed trended quicker with the northern stream, which makes sense with the huge drop in angular momentum and the shift to a nina-like pattern globally, but now they are so fast with the northern stream that the upper level system which brings the weekend clipper through splits, as the southern half of the upper trough cannot keep up with the momentum of the northern stream. This piece then forms a strong area of low pressure near the east coast Sunday, and since the clipper has gone through, there is fresh cold air in place. The end result is a large snowstorm for everyone from Virginia to the Northeast (central PA and western NY the cutoff on the western edge). So in a weird way, the fast flow actually helps out here. Now this is similar to what some models were doing a couple of weeks back when they showed a major Ohio Valley storm. As we all saw, that wound up weaker and farther east, and any adjustment like that here may kill the chance of a notable storm, even if the southern piece gets left behind. The key to breaking off the southern piece lies in a strong ridge that the Euro and Canadian models show in the Rockies, which leans northeastward into central Canada and helps force the split. If this ridge isn't as strong or positioned just right, you get no split or a much weaker one.

Bottom line... I have plenty of reasons to doubt this big storm idea right now given how this pattern has tended to behave this winter. But, as mentioned, this winter has thrown us for a loop before, so I will fully admit I could be wrong here. We'll have to see how the next few model runs go and see if my pattern expectations are off here (which I know most of you reading are hoping for hahaha).

By the way, what all of this also does if the European and Canadian models are right is bring about a colder pattern again just in time for early March as well after a warmup next week, so a lot is going on here.

Weekend Clipper Update

Just a quick update on the weekend clipper here today. My opinion yesterday was that the computer model runs showing this clipper diving far enough south and strengthening enough to give a big snow all the way down to D.C. were overdone, and this would likely shift farther north as we roll forward, and probably a little weaker too. Well, today's models are all over the place. Some keep the farther south track, though much weaker, while others, such as the American (GFS) model are stronger with the system, but farther north. So what do we take from this? Well, at this point, from a modeling perspective, all we can take from it is that models really don't "know" exactly how this evolves, and need another couple of days perhaps to resolve all the features in play. What's my guess? If I had to make the call right now, I wouldn't be excited too much if I was south of a line from roughly Muncie, IN to Pittsburgh, PA to New York City as far as getting more than an inch or so out of this feature. I still have doubts that the northern stream will allow the big amplification / strong system to develop here that some models have been showing (for reasons mentioned previously), as systems in the northern branch on the heels of the clipper may be too close to allow for this to occur. But certainly we cannot rule out a moderate event in parts of the Northeast yet (along and north of the line mentioned above would be most likely candidates). We'll see how things trend now, as of course lots can change since we're still a few days out.

Clipper Threat for Next Weekend?

The threat for significant snow out of the Thursday storm is gone for those not in Wisconsin / Michigan and over into northern New England, so on to the next possible threat. Last week I mentioned how the pattern is stormy and should at least give at least a couple of systems a chance to bring some snow. The next chance looks to be from a clipper coming out of central Canada. These types of storms that come from so far north usually aren't good for major snows, and usually wind up being threats more for the Great Lakes and Northeast as opposed to farther south, but there are exceptions. Anyway, some models now hint that this clipper will push far enough south to bring a snow threat into the Mid Atlantic as well as parts of the Northeast. In the wake of the Thursday storm, colder air comes back into the picture, so there should be cold air in place ahead of the weekend clipper. The issues then are 1) How far south can the storm "dig"?, and 2) How strong can it get once reaching the coast? When getting into a discussion about these questions, we cannot ignore the model errors this year, which as mentioned yesterday have tended to be underplaying the speed / timing of northern stream features. You see, once again, to get a clipper to dive southward, slow down, and strengthen big time along the coast, things have to work out just right, and that includes not having another system moving too closely on its heels to push it along more. I have shown the European model's depiction for next Saturday's setup, and again highlighted three features, with the one farthest east being the clipper storm. Now this model run keeps the systems spaced out enough, and does bomb out the clipper, bringing a big snowstorm to areas from D.C. to Boston. But what if the model once again underestimates the progression of the systems farther west (the other two I have highlighted)? If the model bias again comes into play, then the next two systems may wind up farther east and keep the clipper from digging as far south and getting as strong, and I would not be surprised to see that occur in subsequent model runs. So let's keep an eye on how the systems behind the clipper trend to see if this winds up being a legitimate threat for the Mid Atlantic states, or winds up being a threat just for the Northeast.

So What Happened to Next Week's Storm?

As mentioned yesterday, the prospect for a winter storm next week in the eastern U.S. has greatly diminished. Back when this was first discussed, I said the key was getting the northern branch of the jet stream to slow down enough to allow the pattern to amplify and get a stronger storm far enough south to allow folks to get in on some winter love. It seemed a spike in global angular momentum might help us out (see prior posts for this), but that spike has waned and it seems that once again, computer models underestimated the northern stream. I will show you this below with a map that shows the European computer model's forecast for this coming Wednesday evening from back a few days ago when it showed a big storm, and compare it to the most recent run of the same model. For those who don't know what the map means, it's fine. You should still be able to see what I'm talking about based on the features I have highlighted. Here is the map from a few days ago:














I have drawn in red the three "shortwaves", or storms in the pattern embedded in the northern branch of the jet stream, that I want you to focus on. We have one east of New England, another in west-central Canada, and another almost off the map west of Alaska. I did not highlight the trough in the Midwest, but that was the system that is our storm itself. With this model depiction, it was arriving on the scene at just the right time, and things looked great, since the system east of New England would have colder air in its wake for the storm to "play with". But the issue, again, is that in this particular la nina-like pattern, the northern stream has very often moved along faster than models have predicted (there are reasons for this, but no need to get too technical here in this discussion), and if that occurred, it would kill the chance for the winter storm as 1) colder air could escape quicker, and 2) the storm can come much farther north. Sure enough, this is what happened. Here is a map off the most recent European model run, valid the same time, Wednesday evening.














I have highlighted in red the same three features in the northern stream, and because they are moving along faster than models showed a few days ago, notice how much farther east they are. Thus, any chance of the winter storm this week is no more, and we'll have to hope another one comes along and we can get a slower northern stream with better amplification into the eastern U.S. It's a tough chore in this winter.

I should add that this still doesn't rule out parts of New England from getting snow out of this storm, as of course it is colder up there and that may still be enough. This discussion is more about how the pattern just isn't cooperating farther south.

Dagger Inserted into Hopes of Next Week's Storm for Most Folks?

It certainly looks that way. I mentioned yesterday how it looked like the pattern across the north (Canada) had trended less favorable, and that has continued today as well. Basically the flow is moving along enough to prevent sufficient "blocking" (which is the mechanism to trap cold air in the East and force an incoming storm to redevelop along the coast) for a winter storm to form. So it looks like the overall trend of this la nina-like winter will continue in this regard. This doesn't remove New England (probably interior) from the equation yet, but certainly farther south, this pattern just is not wanting to be kind to winter lovers.

What's next? Well, the bias of the pattern looks to be on the colder than normal side for many areas outside of the Rockies and the South from next week through probably the end of the month or even into early March as North Atlantic blocking may persist, and Pacific pattern stays favorable for colder systems to dive southeast out of western Canada, so the book certainly isn't closed on winter yet, but of course it is getting into its final chapters. At least with what looks like an abundance of storms tracking from west to east, there is still the hope that one will "connect", but in this year's pattern, it's going to have to "thread the needle", so to speak.

Quick Update on Storm Chances Next Week

For my eastern U.S. readers, I figured I'd do a quick update here on the possible storm chances next week, specifically with the larger storm that has been showing up on computer model forecasts for late next week. Recall from yesterday the idea was that unless the northern brach of the jet stream slowed down, it would be tougher for the pattern to amplify, or "slow down" enough to allow a larger storm to develop. I did cite a couple of reasons why this could occur, one being the stratospheric warming recently, which has weakened the polar vortex, and the other being shifts in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which in technical terms, is leading to an increase in global angular momentum, which typically builds up as circulations slow (this can include the jet stream here in North America... It doesn't always happen this way, but can "stack the deck", so to speak). I have the angular momentum tendency below:

Focus on the bottom graph. You can see a spike up in the last week or two, but it is waning now. Computer models today still show the storm, but shifted well north of where they had it. This is a common adjustment especially with bigger storms, as stronger storms tend to form farther north anyway. But also the drop shown in today's angular momentum update may be a sign that hey, the jet stream isn't going to slow as much. That seems to be the message from today's models as well, as features across the north are shown moving along quicker and thus the storm isn't able to "dig" as much as previously indicated. The curious thing though is that models still show it blowing up into a strong storm, albeit farther north. I say curious because I would have assumed a quicker exit due to the faster northern stream, and a weaker low pressure as a result. This still gives me quite a bit of uncertainty with how this plays out. I certainly don't think anyone in the Northeast is out of the running with this yet. Down into the Mid Atlantic it's going to be tough, as you cannot ignore the trend of today's modeling, which matches the trend of the season for storms to generally trend north as time rolls on. I think the "la nina" tendencies of the pattern this winter have been the major culprit in this.

We'll see how things look tonight and tomorrow. If we can keep the "blocking" pattern that we have out in the North Atlantic / polar regions (which tries to keep colder air in place in the eastern U.S.), then this may not be the last chance for some winter fun, though it is getting late the farther south you live. Problem is timing how long until the block breaks and it is game over and we warm up (maybe a week or so into March?).

Severe Weather Verification... Winter Coming back to East?

Unfortunately last night turned out to be a deadly one in Oklahoma, with at least 8 people killed by a tornado (I have heard maybe up to 15?) and many more injured. As far as yesterday's post and the area highlighted as the area under highest threat, it turned out okay... not stellar, but decent. I liked eastern half of Oklahoma and far Northeast Texas as far as greatest threat for tornadoes. There were only a handful of reports, shown by the map below, and it wound up basically right in the middle of Oklahoma with one in far north Texas.













Still have thunderstorm activity in the Ohio / Tennessee Valleys today, as well as into parts of the South, but the severe weather threat not as high as yesterday, certainly not as far as tornadoes, though it will be very windy even once the cold front associated with this system moves through later this evening.

This is a pretty exciting weather pattern though for weather geeks like myself... lots of storms to track from the West Coast all the way across the nation in the next week or two. The warmer pattern is about done (except for those of us in Texas, but meh, I'm fine with that). Winter weather lovers in the eastern U.S. may be able to rejoice next week and / or the week after by getting some snow out of the deal. Of course, most people would enjoy the big storm more than some nickel-and-dimers, and that isn't out of the question starting mid to late next week. To get a bigger storm to form, the jet stream across the north needs to slow down enough to allow for more amplification, and there are some signs that this may occur as the global atmospheric circulations slow in response to a recent stratospheric warming event as well as shifts in thunderstorm patterns out in the tropical Pacific Ocean (everything in weather is connected in one way or another). Some of the computer models we look at have shown quite a storm in the Mid-Atlantic late next week, and while it isn't uncommon to see computer models blow up storms way too much and too often, this pattern is a favorable one for above normal snows in many areas of the eastern U.S, whether with a "big one" or by multiple smaller storms. It's not a guarantee by any means, but at least suggests a higher than normal chance, which is all winter weather lovers can ask for at this point.

Tomorrow perhaps we can hone in on what areas are the ones to watch the most next week, tough as that may be from several days out!

Wintertime Severe Weather!

Those of you not inclined to care about weather much may get bored with some posts here, or may not fully understand everything, but now that we are heading closer to Springtime, that means thunderstorm season is drawing closer, which personally is my favorite time of the year, thus I may focus on this more in the coming months. But it is also a time when people have to really keep a close eye on things, given that Spring is prime season for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. These phenomena can occur at any time of year though, and late today / tonight may be one example of an "out of season" event, though we've seen more outbreaks in the winter season in recent years.


Today's area of concern is in central / eastern Oklahoma, northeast Texas, and over into Arkansas primarily. It's warm for this time of the year, and with a potent storm on the way this evening, may spell trouble. Predicting severe storms can be very tricky, as it is more a matter of how very small scale features interact with one another. But there are some large scale indicators that can at least offer clues as to more likely target areas. The first thing you need is to have a warm, moist air mass in place. Dewpoints ideally need to be in the 60s, which we should have in much of the affected area later this evening (take my word for it since I'm not posting a map of this here). Without this, there is not sufficient "juice" for a large outbreak typically. Warm, moist air is more "unstable", meaning it rises easier, and it is this rising motion the fules thunderstorm development. Next, consider this evening's modeled surface map of the southern Plains (click to enlarge):















The black lines indicate sea level pressure. The colors are temeprature. Winds are shown by the small wind barbs. Low pressure is seen in western Oklahoma here, with a value around 997 millibars (mb). A "rule of thumb" (in quotes because no "rule" ever works all the time in this business) is that, once you have established enough moisture (high dewpoints) in place, look for pressures of 1004 mb or lower. As you can see by this map, that covers most of Texas and all of Oklahoma. Next let's look at what's known as the low level jet. This is at roughly 5000 ft above sea level:














The colors here represent wind speed in knots, and again the wind barbs are shown to show the direction of the wind. Note the strongest winds (which is the low level jet) found in eastern Oklahoma and Texas, with speeds over 50 knots, which is well over what is necessary to generate severe weather. Also note the winds are out of the south or even southwest, whereas the surface winds in the first map are out of the southeast primarily in this region. This turning of the winds with height (wind shear) is a very key component especially in the formation of tornadic storms. Also keep in mind that if you are looking in the direction that the low level jet is blowing, the bulk of tornadic activity would usually be to your left, placing central / eastern Oklahoma and eastern Texas most at risk. Finally, to keep things sort of simply, here is the same map but for the upper level jet (now up 30,000+ feet above sea level):














There is a very strong jet here from central Texas northeastward into Arkansas and Missouri. So in looking at the last two maps, there is solid "coupling" (or intersecting) of the upper level jet and low level jet in southeastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Another "rule of thumb" is that when you have this coupling of the jets, areas near the region of intersection and to the left of the general direction the jets are blowing (again assuming you are facing that direction) is the primary point of concern, so given that sufficient moist air should be in place, tells me that the primary area to watch in this case is far northeast Texas and the eastern half of Oklahoma.

So we have a lot of large scale factors coming together for some rough weather this evening into tonight, with the most likely target for severe, possibly tornadic storms being in eastern Oklahoma and far northeast Texas, spreading into Arkansas late (the maps are static pictures, and of course all of this moves east and the night wears on). Keep in mind though I mentioned how important the small scale features really are, which I haven't gone into. This is more just to analyze the big picture and say, okay, here is the general region to watch for problems. We'll see how that goes. Hopefully everyone in the area is prepared just in case.

I may get more technical with some of the weather stuff in the future if enough weather saavy people check in, and heck, might be able to get back to true winter-like weather and talk about snow chances for the eastern U.S. soon!

President Pelosi?

Sheesh it was painful even typing that title, as that is a thought that would scare the living heck out of me and any sane person. But after watching President Obama's speech tonight, I felt like I was listening to the whacko Speaker of the House (Nancy Pelosi) instead, hence the title. I have had hope that Obama turns out to be a good president, and up until tonight would have even given him a favorable rating, despite the less-than-stellar nominations he has made. Maybe I'm too nice of a guy. But after tonight's performance, what hope I had for him is gone. Why? Well, mainly because he came out and basically told the American people "What you thought I was... what I ran on... Sorry that is not what I am." He had a very combative tone. He is using fear mongering by making statements like this "stimulus" MUST pass or we may not recover (funny since he and his party always blasted the previous administration for using fear tactics). So rather than actually debate it, we're being told we have to rush through whatever he, Pelosi, and Harry Ried want or we will cease to exist as we know it. Oh boy. So much for bipartisanship. When discussing the pork-inflated "stimulus", and how much it costs, he barked that the massive deficit was there when he arrived. So that means you spend like there's no tomorrow and make it worse? Sorry Barack, no sane person can follow such "logic". And then there was his comment that "all big bills have earmarks (pork - garbage thrown in that shouldn't be there)". This is true, but all during the campaign he stated how he would fight to change this. Hypocrisy? Yep! I said there was an epidemic of this in Washington, and it has infected our President. He is clearly NOT going to be what he said he would be if this is the road he chooses to continue down, and why should we think he will do otherwise after such a shameful performance tonight? America voted for a change. This isn't an attempt to refute or ignore that. But the problem is, the change he promised is not the change being delivered. I hope I'm overreacting here just due to being pissed after listening to this, but I have lost a lot of what optimism I had, and honestly don't think the President has any clue how to fix things, so is caving in to the loons in his party. Change indeed. Buckle up America.

An Epidemic of Hypocrisy

The more things change, the more they stay the same I guess. Despite a new administration in Washington, coming from a different party, it looks like all we are getting is more doses of "do as I say, not as I do." We had the Republicans, who claimed to be conservative, yet spent money as well as any liberals ever could. Now, we have thrown them out and have the Democrats... who have given us folks like V.P. Joe Biden. Recall, he thinks it is "patriotic" to pay taxes. That's pretty comical in light of all the Obama appointees who have turned out to not even pay all of their taxes! So apparently is it okay to increase redistribution of wealth, as long as it isn't your own, or at least that is the message here by some of these crooks, and yes, let's call them what they are. Now to be fair, sure, it is a small number who have been "found out", but you have to wonder how many more would turn up if audited by the IRS. When those who are put in place to lead cannot even follow the rules, well, you kinda have problems. It's not always easy to find truly genuine people in the world anyway. Unfortunately, it seems to be growing infinitely tougher to find any of them in Washington... truly an epidemic of hypocrisy.

The Groundhog Has Spoken!

Groundhog's Day has come around once again, and as usual, the verdict is......

6 more weeks of winter weather! Sorry all of you who may be eager for an early Spring. Of course, this is for entertainment purposes only, but you would think they'd at least try to bring in some unpredictability to it. Anyway, the legend states that when he sees his shadow, that means 6 more weeks of winter, and when he doesn't see his shadow, it means an early Spring. But it really is a big joke considering that he has seen his shadow in 97 out of 112 years, so it seems more an excuse for the locals to camp out and get drunk watching a rodent crawl out of a hole, since the result is pretty much a forgone conclusion.

Anyway, maybe the result will have some validity this year. Not that it matters where I live since we don't have a winter season haha, but there are a lot of signals saying that, despite a break from winter weather for most of the nation this weekend into first half of next week, chances for cold and snow will return in the second half of this month for a good deal of the nation, and maybe into March.

Speaking of snow, the city of London had their biggest snowstorm in almost 20 years today! Somewhere though, Al Gore is still ranting about global warming. (Yes I know one snow event does not make a climate shift, so this is kinda tongue-in-cheek, but let's see how the next several years unfold... refer to my post awhile back for my viewpoint there).

Super Bowl Time!

Yep, it's that time again for the most watched sporting event of the year. I'm typically more of a fan of college football than a fan of the NFL, but usually watch the Super Bowl regardless of who is playing, though it ends pretty late for those of us who have to be up at 3:00 AM the next morning. I'm not all that interested in this year's version, but since everyone else is doing it, here is my fearless prediction for tonight's game:

Pittsburgh 24
Arizona 14