I have to admit this is a very low confidence forecast, but it is time to take a stab. First, the model ideas. The European came pretty far west with the upper low, close to the Canadian, while other models are farther east. This is because the Euro / Canadian are slower with the "kicker" that helps push things along. Now, do we want to bet on a SLOWER northern stream in this winter season's pattern? I don't, and think the Euro has probably come too far west, as GFS seems to be initialized slightly better, but we'll see. It is a tricky call since we have a front running wave ahead of the upper low. Because of this, I have two maps. One for the front runner and another for the upper low itself as it moves across. I also need to point out these maps are for snowfall ideas. While I have wave one missing the big cities with respect to acumulating snow, I do think sleet is very possible, especially from Philly to New York, and perhaps Boston as well, though some snow should fall there. I'm not as emphatic with this front wave as the NAM model, but don't mind its overall track.
The second wave with the upper low itself, unfortunately may wind up too far east to help the big cities, as I don't think it phases, but rather gets pushed out to see faster than what the Euro / Canadian alliance show. D.C. is the toughest call here if I am right with this overall idea, and I have them near the 1-3" boundary. This looks like a great storm for western North Carolina, and we may actually get a decent snow in the Roanoke to Richmond corridor (if this fails I will give up predicting snow ever there hahaha). The reason this is all so difficult to pin down is because you have to assess how quick the cold air arrives, then how far east the front wave pushes the boundary, followed by the position of the upper low and how it interacts with the boundary left from the front wave. Here are the maps. First one is for the front running wave tomorrow evening into Sunday. The second is with the upper low Sunday into Monday. If you'd like any clarification, by all means ask. If this busts, I think it will be due to a less impressive first wave, and a beefed up wave associated with the upper low. The interior Southeast could do better than what I have here, especially near mountains.
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