Clipper Update... March Severe Weather?

Overall I'm still okay with the clipper ideas posted yesterday. I think the general areas I outlined with a shot at 2-4 inches of snow from the clipper itself isn't bad, though the area of highest uncertainty is in the state of Massachusetts. If the energy transfers to the coast farther south, then my areas would need to come south some at least in the East, as the low levels of the atmosphere would not be able to warm as much. It's a very close call to be sure for places like Boston. Also keep in mind my map wasn't meant to include any lake effect or upslope mountain snow behind the clipper.


I'd also like to look ahead a little to March here. There is not great model agreement in extended time frames, but the pattern presented by the GFS (American model) in early March would be quite conducive for some early season severe weather in parts of the U.S. Hard to say it is right yet, but it cannot be ruled out given the angular momentum drop recently and the overall nina-like tendencies this season. Anyway, just more of a "heads up" for now. Here are the upper air anomalies forecast by the GFS ensembles for the 11-15 day period (taking us to early March), courtesy of MDA Federal's site:

You can see all the negative anomalies out in the West, indicating a much stronger trough, or upper level storm out there. In the Spring, these can become prolific severe weather producers when they eject into the middle of the nation. To compare, I also have a similar map that covers some of the most active tornado seasons of the past. This next map covers April - June periods, which is the heart of the tornado season, but you can see it is very similar to the first map, indicating a favorable period may arise earlier this year, again if the GFS model is correct, which remains to be seen. We'll watch this potential over the next week or so, along with searching for any more notable threats for late season winter weather.