Weekend Clipper Update

Just a quick update on the weekend clipper here today. My opinion yesterday was that the computer model runs showing this clipper diving far enough south and strengthening enough to give a big snow all the way down to D.C. were overdone, and this would likely shift farther north as we roll forward, and probably a little weaker too. Well, today's models are all over the place. Some keep the farther south track, though much weaker, while others, such as the American (GFS) model are stronger with the system, but farther north. So what do we take from this? Well, at this point, from a modeling perspective, all we can take from it is that models really don't "know" exactly how this evolves, and need another couple of days perhaps to resolve all the features in play. What's my guess? If I had to make the call right now, I wouldn't be excited too much if I was south of a line from roughly Muncie, IN to Pittsburgh, PA to New York City as far as getting more than an inch or so out of this feature. I still have doubts that the northern stream will allow the big amplification / strong system to develop here that some models have been showing (for reasons mentioned previously), as systems in the northern branch on the heels of the clipper may be too close to allow for this to occur. But certainly we cannot rule out a moderate event in parts of the Northeast yet (along and north of the line mentioned above would be most likely candidates). We'll see how things trend now, as of course lots can change since we're still a few days out.