What a Mess!

Well, we are within 3 days of the weekend event, and there is still so much to resolve. Part of the reason models (and forecasters) are struggling with this event is because there are so many shortwaves playing a role in the evolution of this storm, and according to most models, these features are unable to consolidate into one potent system, so we wind up with a couple of different waves developing along the frontal boundary that moves through on Friday. Getting back for a moment to the original 3 scenarios I outlined the other day, the closest to what looks to be happening is number 3. The northern stream features actually do look to be progressing a little more than the Euro model from the other day showed (no shock there since this happens with seemingly every system this season). And also the southern piece more or less stays south and gets pushed out to sea too much to help most folks. However, the new wrinkle in this is that even the southern stream piece itself is divided, and some models show the leading piece in the southern stream hooking up with the frontal boundary in time to bring a wave of snow (and sleet) from the Apps up into the Northeast, while the second piece hangs back and could become a notable late season wet snow event for the Southeast. I think at this point it is hard to argue completely against the divided southern stream pieces, but I do wonder if models are jumping on wave number one a little too much and thus not developing the core of the southern upper low enough. The UKMET model seems to be putting more eggs in the basket of the second piece, and to me isn't unreasonable as far as modeling goes. We'll know more though tomorrow once all of the players involved are squarely in a location where they will be able to be better sampled by upper air data and thus better handled by models.

If time permits, I'll throw out a forecast map for this event tomorrow. Right nowI think folks near the Apps and up into interior Northeast are fair game for a decent late season wet snow event, all the way down into the Carolinas as well as eastern Tennessee and northern Georgia. And the upper low is strong enough that even some lower elevations farther east in the Carolinas may see some accumulating wet snow out of the deal.

What about the big cities of the East? I can envision precipitation staying mostly frozen from Boston down to New York City, and maybe even Philly. This could be quite a sleet-fest in these areas given the strength of the low level cold currently up in Canada, which always proves tougher to get rid of than models think, so while it may not be a big snow event, it could be reminiscent of the sleet events from a couple of winters ago, thus still a notable late season storm.

I'd like to be able to offer more specifics, but having been out of town the last few days, that makes it tougher to dive right in and try to figure out things with such a complex setup like this one. Again, hopefully I'll have a map tomorrow to show visually what I think is most likely.