Clipper Threat for Next Weekend?

The threat for significant snow out of the Thursday storm is gone for those not in Wisconsin / Michigan and over into northern New England, so on to the next possible threat. Last week I mentioned how the pattern is stormy and should at least give at least a couple of systems a chance to bring some snow. The next chance looks to be from a clipper coming out of central Canada. These types of storms that come from so far north usually aren't good for major snows, and usually wind up being threats more for the Great Lakes and Northeast as opposed to farther south, but there are exceptions. Anyway, some models now hint that this clipper will push far enough south to bring a snow threat into the Mid Atlantic as well as parts of the Northeast. In the wake of the Thursday storm, colder air comes back into the picture, so there should be cold air in place ahead of the weekend clipper. The issues then are 1) How far south can the storm "dig"?, and 2) How strong can it get once reaching the coast? When getting into a discussion about these questions, we cannot ignore the model errors this year, which as mentioned yesterday have tended to be underplaying the speed / timing of northern stream features. You see, once again, to get a clipper to dive southward, slow down, and strengthen big time along the coast, things have to work out just right, and that includes not having another system moving too closely on its heels to push it along more. I have shown the European model's depiction for next Saturday's setup, and again highlighted three features, with the one farthest east being the clipper storm. Now this model run keeps the systems spaced out enough, and does bomb out the clipper, bringing a big snowstorm to areas from D.C. to Boston. But what if the model once again underestimates the progression of the systems farther west (the other two I have highlighted)? If the model bias again comes into play, then the next two systems may wind up farther east and keep the clipper from digging as far south and getting as strong, and I would not be surprised to see that occur in subsequent model runs. So let's keep an eye on how the systems behind the clipper trend to see if this winds up being a legitimate threat for the Mid Atlantic states, or winds up being a threat just for the Northeast.